India Tomorrow...?

This is not a passing by thought, but a prediction logically derived from facts in history.

Vēluppillai Pirapākaran born on the 26th of November 1954 in Velvettithurai a costal town on the northeast coast of the Jaffna peninsula founded the organization called the Tamil New Tigers in 1972 at just 18 years of age. He committed his first ever political murder on the 27th of July 1975, by shooting Alfred Duraiappa in cold blood. Pirapakaran did not waver from his task at hand, even though Duraiappa was at the doorstep of a Kovil, on his way in for prayers. So began the saga of Pirapakaran, who saw murder as the solution to anyone who challenged him or anyone who he deemed to be even a slightest threat.

He did not spare people of his own Tamil race. Starting with Alfred Duraiappa the list of Tamil leaders and activists murdered by Pirapakaran runs long, with names like B.K. Thambipillai, V. Dharmalingam, A. Amirthalingam, Rajani Thiranagama, K. Padmanabha, V. Yogasangari, Sarojini Yogeswaran, Neelan Tiruchelvam, Lakshman Kadiragamar and Ketheesh Loganathan. The last on the list of hundreds being Jeyraj Fernandopulle.

Pirapakaran did not stop by murdering only leaders of Tamil origin. His claws of death reached out towards other communities. He may have been influenced by Robert A. Pape's "Decapitation Theory", where military superiority is achieved by targeting the enemy's top command. He treated Sri Lanka, as a whole, its leaders, military, citizens, economy and infrastructure as the enemy. He saw the eradication of leadership as a solution to balance the numerical and military superiority of the Sri Lankan military. He systematically deprived Sri Lanka of the people who could lead her, Lt. Gen. Denzil Kobbekaduwa, Maj. Gen. Vijaya Wimalarathna, Lalith Athulathmudali, Ranjan Wijerathna, Gamini Dissanayake, C.V. Gunarathna, Maj. Gen. (Rtd) Lakshman Algama and Maj. Gen. (Rtd) Janaka Perera, just to name a few. Miraculously on a rare occasion of Pirapakarans’s suicide bomber failures, Chandrika Kumaranathunga, Lt. Gen Sarath Fonseka, Lt. Col. (Rtd) Gotabaya Rajapaksha and most recently Maithreepala Sirisena were the few who had God watching over them and escaped a close brush with death.

Pirapakaran was not a man who associated with the word "gratitude". Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and Sri Lankan president Premadasa found out this fact, the worst way one could, by paying for it with their lives.

Rajiv Gandhi trained and armed the Pirapakaran and the LTTE, and many other Tamil militant groups. South India was a gush with Tamil militant training camps overseen by RAW. Rajiv Gandhi even went to the extent of sending in helicopters from the Hindon military base via Thanjavur to save Pirapakaran who was surrounded and on the verge of being captured by the Sri Lankan forces during the Vadamarachchi operation in 1987. The first lease of life for Pirapakaran. Rajiv Gandhi went even further; on the 4th of June 1987 he ordered operation "Poomalai", where India violated Sri Lankan airspace to dropped food aid to Jaffna as a show of solidarity with Pirapakaran. This act of bullying in turn lead to the signing of the Indo-Lanka Peace accord on the 29th of July 1987, which lead to Indian Peacekeeping Forces landing in Sri Lanka. By the time IPKF left Sri Lanka in March 1990, Rajiv Gandhi's expedition with Pirapakaran, had cost India 1255 of her sons with a few more thousand injured, all caused by non other than the very Pirapakaran Gandhi intervened to save. The end of this escapade was when Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated at a political rally on the 21st of May 1991 by a LTTE woman suicide bomber who garlanded Gandhi before blowing her self up. She was sent by non other than Pirapakaran himself.

President Premadasa was the key person in orchestrating the withdrawal of the IPKF from Sri Lanka. He collaborated with Pirapakaran in fighting the IPKF as well as demanded that the IPKF leave Sri Lanka when it was on the verge capturing Pirapakaran. Here was the second lease of life for Pirapakaran. Just over two years after the withdrawal of the IPKF, Premadasa was assassinated by Babu, a LTTE suicide bomber and a close confederate of president Premadasa himself.

So what does the history of Pirapakaran predict for India? Well nothing as long as India does not interfere with the current war against Pirapakaran and his band of LTTE Terrorists by the Mahinda Rajapakse government.

There is no doubt that Killinochchi, the administrative capital of the Pirapakaran's Eelam state after the liberation of Jaffna in 1995, is about to be liberated itself, with the 57th division on the outskirts of the city. The fall of Killinochchi would pave the way for the Sri Lankan military to take Paranthan, which would lead to the breakdown of supply lines to Elephantpass, Muhamalai, Nagarkovil and Killali, thereby encouraging the 53rd and 55th divisions in Jaffna to open a new front. Nachchikuda, already encircled by Task-Force 1 and Poonareen, key bastions of the LTTE for the control of the Northwestern coast, vital for weapons smugglers from South-India, are high on the Sri Lankan military's target list. The imminent fall of Nachchikuda and Poonareen, the librated A32 highway would make the A9 highway redundant and provide a land rout connecting Jaffna with the rest of Sri Lanka, nullifying the last trump card of Pirapakaran. Mullaitheevu, Pirapakaran's only remaining LTTE stronghold would no doubt be encircled and ultimately liberated. Within months special-op teams and the SIS would wipe out the few remaining LTTE carders who’d gone underground to wage a guerilla war. The fall of the LTTE and its strongholds would mean that it would be only a matter of time before Pirapakaran is captured or killed. If captured, he has been promised to India by president Rajapakse, to face Indian justice for the murder of Rajiv Gandhi. This is seen as a strategic move and well thought of. Firstly, Rajapakse would not want to sign the death-sentence of Pirapakaran and if he did, it would only make Pirapakaran a martyr. Holding Pirapakaran in jail for a life-sentence poses a great security threat and would be more than what the government is willing to risk. The logical solution is to hand him over to India and let India deal with him, while cementing the bonds of friendship between Sri Lanka and "Big-brother" India.

With the war going bad for Pirapakaran, it is a time for the South-Indian politicians to experimenting with Tamil sentiment for their own political and financial gains, with some Tamil Nadu politicians known to be on the payroll of the LTTE to attract attention to false propaganda of the LTTE and to stirrup Tamil resentment in Tamil Nadu. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Karunanidhi, Vaiko, Ramadoss, Thirumalavan and Nadumaran are at the heart of this plot. Threatening the resignations of 36 ministers is such an attempt by the Tamil Nadu politicians, puppeteered by Pirapakaran, to arm-twist New Delhi to intervene and save Pirapakaran from defeat, while making the headlines of the World's dailies. India a nuclear power, with the world's 3rd largest army, 4th largest air force and 5th largest Navy just has to hold up her hand and Sri Lanka has to simply stop. With Sri Lanka having no strategic importance worth a war with India, other countries would not intervene to save Sri Lanka. A similar scenario to when Russia decided to play "peace-enforcer" in Georgia. So if New Delhi needed to, it can stop the Sri Lankan government's war against Pirapakarna and the LTTE Terrorists.

But, what are the consequences of such an adventure by Indian at this juncture? If India intervenes this time, there is no doubt that Eelam will be created. The Sri Lankan economy, resilient enough to withstand 30 years of conflict, would not be able to withstand 30 more. The Sri Lankan people, resilient enough to withstand 30 years of war, bloodshed, hardship and misery, would not be able to withstand 30 more. Sri Lankan cannot risk the economy and it's people, and the government’s willpower would be crushed. Pirapakaran will no doubt achieve his mono ethnic state of Eelam, if India intervenes now to stop this war.

But, here lies the real tiger, dormant till Eelam is won. Will Pirapakaran stop with Eelam, with a maximum population of around a 800,000 , with another million in Southern Sri Lanka, another 100,000 in India and another 450,000 in Western countries. It is doubtable that the Tamils in Southern Sri Lanka and Western countries will ever return to Eelam to face hardship, after living luxurious lives. Can Eelam survive and be a player in the world with less than a million, or will Pirapakaran turn his eye to the North, North towards Tamil Nadu where "Greater Eelam" lies? Can Pirapakaran, resist the temptation to rule over 66 million people, a landmass of 130,000 square kilometers and a vast coast? It is doubtable he can or he will. Now would start India's saga, the assassination of Tamil Nadu leaders like Karunanidhi, Vaiko, Ramadoss, Thirumalavan, Nadumaran all who helped Pirapakaran, just like Rajiv Gandhi and Premadasa. Next on the suicide bomber hit list would be Jayalalitha, for her continuous opposition to Pirapakaran. This would signal the beginning of the end of the Territorial integrity of Great India. In the campaign to achieve "Greater Eelam" the suicide bomber hit list would extend to the include leaders in New Delhi, this would be when "India tomorrow would become Sri Lanka today"!

No doubt that India cannot risk such an ill adventure, with her own problems with separatism and terrorism, and with her great aspiration of becoming an economical and military superpower lying just over the horizon.